certainty yield — near-certain favourites in their final day, gated by Jev
paper only · $10 ticket at the live ask · accepted = Jev still_moving < 0.3 and not a scheduled contest · control = priced but rejected · refreshed 0s agoexperiment
day 14 of 14
accepted positions
233 · 37 open
accepted realised pnl
+1.26$
accepted yield / day locked
0.03%
jev verdicts · cost
1960 · $0.05
accepted vs control — realised
Backtest (T-24h, 894 favourites): accepted 99.6 % hit / +1.47 % per trade, control 97.1 % / −1.08 %. Break-even hit-rate at ask 0.98 is 98.0 %. Yield per day = pnl ÷ Σ(ticket × days held) — the number that answers "how fast does the money come back".
| group | positions | resolved | won / lost | hit | pnl | yield / day | held | expected / day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| accepted (still_moving < 0.3, no contest) | 233 (37 open) | 196 | 192 / 4 | 97.96% | +1.26$ | 0.03% | 2.6 d | 2.11% |
| control (rejected) | 1574 (5 open) | 1569 | 1536 / 33 | 97.90% | +46.34$ | 0.16% | 1.8 d | 3.01% |
open accepted positions — ranked by expected yield / day
cumulative realised pnl — accepted vs control
acceptedcontrol