✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3300 = $1.65 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
events (12h)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 37 @ $0.0320 = $1.18 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3300 = $1.65 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 41 @ $0.0290 = $1.19 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 41 @ $0.0290 = $1.19 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
📈 Claude: UP (82%)
Trump explicitly says he spoke to Warsh recently, making a Truth Social mention of 'Warsh' this week very likely.
NEWS: [cnbc_top] Trump says he spoke recently to Fed Chairman Warsh, denies regular calls
MARKET: Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" this week?
📉 Claude: DOWN (78%)
Iran war presses on per Bloomberg; blockade end in 2 days is very unlikely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Jones Act Relief Extended, Iran War Presses On | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/10/2026
MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (78%)
Trump actively touting anti-China mineral project makes a 'China' Truth Social post this week very likely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Trump Touts $3B in Mineral Project to Counter China
MARKET: Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?
📉 Claude: DOWN (75%)
Iran war pressing on; blockade end by Aug 13 (3 days) is very unlikely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Jones Act Relief Extended, Iran War Presses On | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/10/2026
MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (75%)
Soft jobs and expert commentary against hikes makes 50+ bps increase by Dec 2026 near-impossible.
NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike
MARKET: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (75%)
Soft jobs plus State Street saying don't raise makes 50+ bps hike by Jan 2027 extremely unlikely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike
MARKET: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (72%)
Ongoing Iran war with compensation demands makes blockade end by Aug 14 very unlikely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Jones Act Relief Extended, Iran War Presses On | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/10/2026
MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (72%)
Soft jobs data and State Street commentary both argue against any rate increase.
NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike
MARKET: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (72%)
Soft jobs and anti-hike sentiment make a 25 bps increase very unlikely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike
MARKET: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (70%)
Iran war presses on with no signs of Hormuz agreement by Aug 12 (2 days away).
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Jones Act Relief Extended, Iran War Presses On | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/10/2026
MARKET: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 12?
📉 Claude: DOWN (68%)
Iran war continuing and Trump demanding compensation makes Hormuz agreement by Aug 15 unlikely. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Jones Act Relief Extended, Iran War Presses On | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/10/2026 MARKET: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
📉 Claude: DOWN (65%)
0-19 posts is near-impossible given Trump's active engagement on Iran, China, and Fed topics. NEWS: [nyt_politics] Trump Wants to Move On From the Middle East. It’s Not Letting Him. MARKET: Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (62%)
Soft jobs data makes rate cuts more likely, reducing probability of no change at Jan 2027. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike MARKET: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (60%)
Iran war ongoing with escalatory rhetoric; blockade end by Aug 22 remains unlikely. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Jones Act Relief Extended, Iran War Presses On | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/10/2026 MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (60%)
20-39 posts is extremely low given active Iran war, China, and Fed news cycle. NEWS: [nyt_politics] Trump Wants to Move On From the Middle East. It’s Not Letting Him. MARKET: Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (58%)
Soft jobs strengthens case for 25 bps cut by Dec 2026. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike MARKET: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
📈 Claude: UP (58%)
Soft jobs data supports larger rate cuts, boosting 50+ bps decrease probability by Jan 2027. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike MARKET: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
Bitcoin rally fading makes sustaining above $70k by Aug 17 less likely. NEWS: [decrypt] Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next? MARKET: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 17?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Soft jobs data supports rate cuts, boosting 50+ bps decrease probability by Dec 2026. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike MARKET: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
Ongoing Iran war and compensation demands make Hormuz agreement by Aug 31 unlikely but longer horizon adds uncertainty. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Jones Act Relief Extended, Iran War Presses On | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/10/2026 MARKET: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
Rally fading narrative suggests BTC pulling back from highs, making $74k target harder. NEWS: [decrypt] Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next? MARKET: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 16?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
40-59 posts is very low given multiple active geopolitical and economic topics. NEWS: [nyt_politics] Trump Wants to Move On From the Middle East. It’s Not Letting Him. MARKET: Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Soft jobs supports a 25 bps cut path by Jan 2027. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike MARKET: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Trump dominating headlines on Iran, China, Fed makes #1 Google search more likely. NEWS: [nyt_politics] Trump Wants to Move On From the Middle East. It’s Not Letting Him. MARKET: Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
Iran war and Jones Act relief suggest tight oil supply, making a dip to $75 less likely. NEWS: [cnbc_top] Trump extends limited waiver of shipping law to keep oil flowing in U.S. amid Iran war MARKET: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of August 10 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (52%)
60-79 posts well below the 160-179 top sibling; busy news week makes this range unlikely. NEWS: [nyt_politics] Trump Wants to Move On From the Middle East. It’s Not Letting Him. MARKET: Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (52%)
Bitcoin rally fading makes reaching $70k in the next week less likely. NEWS: [decrypt] Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next? MARKET: Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 10-16?
📉 Claude: DOWN (50%)
80-99 is far below the expected 160-179 range; active news cycle makes low counts unlikely. NEWS: [nyt_politics] Trump Wants to Move On From the Middle East. It’s Not Letting Him. MARKET: Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (50%)
60-79 is far below the 140-159 top sibling for Aug 7-14. NEWS: [nyt_politics] Trump Wants to Move On From the Middle East. It’s Not Letting Him. MARKET: Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (50%)
Netanyahu's aggressive Gaza stance and regional tensions raise probability of Yemen action. NEWS: [aljazeera] Why Netanyahu’s ‘coup’ against Gaza plan risks endless war MARKET: Israel military action against Yemen by August 31?
📉 Claude: DOWN (50%)
Bitcoin rally fading and Trump Media crypto losses suggest broad crypto weakness hurting ETH. NEWS: [decrypt] Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next? MARKET: Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?
📉 Claude: DOWN (50%)
Fading BTC rally makes reaching $77.5k in August less likely. NEWS: [decrypt] Bitcoin Rally Fades—Where Does Price Go Next? MARKET: Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 41 @ $0.0290 = $1.19 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 41 @ $0.0290 = $1.19 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t understand how to live
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 41 @ $0.0290 = $1.19 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 41 @ $0.0290 = $1.19 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 41 @ $0.0290 = $1.19 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 41 @ $0.0290 = $1.19 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? 5 @ $0.3000 = $1.50 (budget $1.44) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 85)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 40 @ $0.0300 = $1.20 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 40 @ $0.0300 = $1.20 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 40 @ $0.0300 = $1.20 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 40 @ $0.0300 = $1.20 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
Colombia’s Espriella to lead emergency efforts following Bogota earthquake
Vitalik Buterin Says Ethereum Is Betting Its Future on Quantum Security and AI
Trump Media posts $238 million second-quarter loss as crypto declines
🔥 burst: trump
7 sources · 11 news · intensity 49.0
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 44 @ $0.0300 = $1.32 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 44 @ $0.0300 = $1.32 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
Outsiders Pay $6,500 for Help With Sorority Rush
Wisconsin’s Roller Coaster of a Democratic Primary Race for Governor Crashes to an End
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 44 @ $0.0300 = $1.32 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
Trump Touts $3B in Mineral Project to Counter China
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 44 @ $0.0300 = $1.32 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
📉 Claude: DOWN (92%)
Only 2 days away with Trump lashing out and deal hopes dimming.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming
MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (92%)
Only 2 days away and Bloomberg says Hormuz deal is elusive.
NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Stocks Rise at Start of CPI Week; Iran's Hormuz Deal Elusive | Bloomberg Brief 08/10/2026
MARKET: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 12?
📉 Claude: DOWN (90%)
Only 3 days away with Trump lashing out and deal hopes dimming.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming
MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (85%)
Only 5 days away and Bloomberg says Hormuz deal is elusive.
NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Stocks Rise at Start of CPI Week; Iran's Hormuz Deal Elusive | Bloomberg Brief 08/10/2026
MARKET: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
📉 Claude: DOWN (85%)
Only 5 days away with Trump lashing out and deal hopes dimming.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming
MARKET: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
📉 Claude: DOWN (82%)
Trump lashing out with deal hopes dimming makes blockade end by Aug 14 very unlikely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming
MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (78%)
Deal hopes dimming makes blockade end within 12 days very unlikely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming
MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (75%)
Fed official calling for hikes makes a 50+ bps cut extremely unlikely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed
MARKET: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
📈 Claude: UP (70%)
Trump says relationship is good despite disagreement, suggesting continued engagement and possible meeting.
NEWS: [aljazeera] Trump says relationship is good even as Netanyahu rejects Gaza peace plan
MARKET: Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (68%)
Bloomberg explicitly notes Hormuz deal remains elusive. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Stocks Rise at Start of CPI Week; Iran's Hormuz Deal Elusive | Bloomberg Brief 08/10/2026 MARKET: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
📈 Claude: UP (68%)
Iran war ongoing and Jones Act waiver to keep oil flowing implies active naval operations in Hormuz. NEWS: [cnbc_top] Trump extends limited waiver of shipping law to keep oil flowing in U.S. amid Iran war MARKET: Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (65%)
Bloomberg notes Hormuz deal elusive, reducing Iran-Oman agreement likelihood. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Stocks Rise at Start of CPI Week; Iran's Hormuz Deal Elusive | Bloomberg Brief 08/10/2026 MARKET: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
📈 Claude: UP (65%)
Hammack's hawkish stance supports at least a 25 bps hike by Jan 2027. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed MARKET: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (65%)
Fed official calling for hikes makes a rate cut unlikely. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed MARKET: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (65%)
Fed official calling for hikes makes a 50+ bps cut very unlikely. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed MARKET: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
📈 Claude: UP (62%)
Hammack explicitly saying hikes may be needed supports 50+ bps hike path. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed MARKET: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (60%)
Fed official calling for hikes reduces probability of no change. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed MARKET: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (60%)
Hawkish Fed rhetoric makes a Dec rate cut less likely. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed MARKET: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
📈 Claude: UP (60%)
Hot CPI report suggests elevated inflation likely carries into PCE readings. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] A Hot CPI Report Causes Problems for Fed, Caron Says MARKET: Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% or more in July?
📈 Claude: UP (58%)
Hammack saying hikes may be needed supports 50+ bps hike path by Dec. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed MARKET: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Hammack's hawkish stance supports a Dec hike but mixed data adds uncertainty. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Fed’s Hammack Says ‘Some Number’ of Rate Hikes May Be Needed MARKET: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
Netanyahu rejecting Gaza peace plan makes a Trump visit to Gaza less likely without a deal framework. NEWS: [aljazeera] Trump says relationship is good even as Netanyahu rejects Gaza peace plan MARKET: Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions and war increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 14, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 20, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Escalating Iran tensions increase likelihood of Iran targeting Arab countries. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (52%)
Jones Act waiver to keep oil flowing suggests supply pressure; Iran war keeps energy prices elevated. NEWS: [cnbc_top] Trump extends limited waiver of shipping law to keep oil flowing in U.S. amid Iran war MARKET: Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?
📉 Claude: DOWN (50%)
Hot CPI suggests inflation may come in above 0.3%, reducing this outcome's probability. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] A Hot CPI Report Causes Problems for Fed, Caron Says MARKET: Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?
📈 Claude: UP (50%)
Escalating Iran war increases risk of Kharg Island changing control but still speculative. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Lashes Out After Iranian Demands, With Deal Hopes Dimming MARKET: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
📈 Claude: UP (50%)
Soft jobs suggest weakening economy, making 0.5-1.0% GDP growth more plausible. NEWS: [bloomberg_markets] Soft US Jobs Cast Doubt on September Fed Hike MARKET: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 44 @ $0.0300 = $1.32 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 44 @ $0.0300 = $1.32 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
Homeland Security Intensifies Pursuit of Noncitizens on Voter Rolls
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 44 @ $0.0300 = $1.32 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
Rocket Lab reveals some big plans, but its stock is dropping on mixed earnings
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 43 @ $0.0310 = $1.33 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
Turkey's parliament passes limited amnesty law for Kurdish PKK militants
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 43 @ $0.0310 = $1.33 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 43 @ $0.0310 = $1.33 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 43 @ $0.0310 = $1.33 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? 5 @ $0.3200 = $1.60 (budget $1.68) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 80)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? 4 @ $0.4000 = $1.60 (budget $1.46) reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 88)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? 43 @ $0.0310 = $1.33 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
Burnham to give councils more powers to block vape and betting shops
Burnham Touts Plans to Crack Down on UK Vaping, Betting Shops
Europe braces for another heatwave after record-breaking temperatures
Boat operator faces federal charges after mother and infant killed in New York capsizing
Hims & Hers Lowers Profit Forecast, Shares Drop
Trump Wants to Move On From the Middle East. It’s Not Letting Him.
🔥 burst: iran
5 sources · 5 news · intensity 22.0
🔥 burst: gaza
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
📉 Claude: DOWN (92%)
Only 2 days away with Trump escalating demands; blockade end tomorrow is near-impossible.
NEWS: [guardian_world] Trump demands Iran pay compensation for decades of US soldier deaths
MARKET: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (90%)
Top court banning Yabloko from vote is effectively banning them from elections.
NEWS: [dw_top] Russia: Top court bans opposition anti-war party from vote
MARKET: Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
📉 Claude: DOWN (90%)
Court banning Yabloko from vote makes clearing the Duma threshold impossible.
NEWS: [dw_top] Russia: Top court bans opposition anti-war party from vote
MARKET: Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Chicago Taps Fitch Senior Director as New CFO Amid Rash of Exits
Google co-founder Sergey Brin has now spent $100 million to fight the billionaire tax
Australia politics live: parliament returns as Labor seeks deals on NDIS, gambling ads and news bargaining reforms
🔥 burst: australia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 10.0
Anker’s travel charger works in almost any country and is down to $20
Wildfires burn across Indonesia as officials cite El Nino as a cause
Turkiye approves pardon-like bill for thousands of PKK fighters
I looked into buying a house in Singapore as an investment. Here’s why I didn’t — despite the 2% mortgage rate.
Trump Media’s bitcoin holdings shrink as crypto losses hit $361 million
🔥 burst: bitcoin
4 sources · 4 news · intensity 16.0
Nearly 30 pine trees intentionally poisoned in Lake Tahoe’s Nevada side
Canada flight cancelled after child refuses to wear seat belt
Trump says relationship is good even as Netanyahu rejects Gaza peace plan
Bitcoin ATMs Pulled in Australia as Regulators Signal Wider Crackdown
US appeals court says social media addiction lawsuits can proceed
🔥 burst: meta
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
AI Stock Heavy ETF Risks Spread to Broader Equity Market
BTCPay Server supporters offer up to 3 BTC for recovery bounty after critical exploit
Gotham Greens CEO: Not Good To Have an Outbreak Like This
Russia: Top court bans opposition anti-war party from vote
🔥 burst: russia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
Trump to demand compensation for Tehran’s ‘conflicts’
Mark Zuckerberg’s AI manifesto is exactly why people don’t like AI
Judge stays CFTC’s case against US solider over prediction market bets
ETFs Look Safer After Bitcoin Hack, Small Caps | ETF IQ 8/10/2026
Trump says he spoke recently to Fed Chairman Warsh, denies regular calls
🔥 burst: fed
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 14.0
Trump demands Iran pay compensation for decades of US soldier deaths
How a Counterintelligence Inquiry Into Trump’s Russia Ties Was Derailed
Five Takeaways From Zuckerberg’s 6,500-Word Manifesto on AI
D.C.-Area Airport to Close for 3 Hours for Grand Prix Event
Workers are worried, but there’s no sign AI is muscling people out of their jobs on a massive scale
Jones Act Relief Extended, Iran War Presses On | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/10/2026
Webtoon Buys $100 Million Share in Game Studio to Expand Reach
Ebola started 3 months earlier than official declaration
Iran-backed Houthis strike Red Sea port of Mocha, threatening shipping routes
OpenAI Buys Back $7 Billion of Employee Shares in Tender Offer
Oil Jumps as Markets Await Middle East Clarity | Closing Bell
Bitwise's Rasmussen: Circle is mispriced as stablecoins head toward trillions
Hoenig: Upcoming Data Will Be Deciding Factor for Fed
Michigan Senate Race Sets Stage for Midterms and 2028
EBay may dodge a GameStop takeover — but there’s a new twist in the Ryan Cohen saga
Why Russia and Ukraine can't stop each other's air attacks
Turkey Passes Law to Achieve Peace With Kurdish Separatists
Tech industry is buzzing after a Claude agent hacked into a gym
Trump Wants to Split Up the MMR Vaccine
Strategy builds $4.75 billion cash cushion as only bitcoin isn’t enough for investors
Trump Downplays Talks With Warsh Amid Fed Independence Doubts
Good news for stock-market bulls: Corporate earnings growth is no longer being driven just by tech
AI professors are negotiating the new realities of academic research
Sanders Calls on A.I. Companies to Pause Development to ‘Avoid Disaster’
Hidden Text in PDFs Is Hijacking This AI Assistant
Guide to peer-to-peer (P2P) payment apps: Everything you need to know before sending money
Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary vote
TRON USDT supply hits $87.9B as transfers reach $2.1T in Q2: Messari
Trump administration has revoked over 175,000 visas: US State Department
Gautam Adani Wins Dismissal of US Securities Fraud Charges
Dating App Grindr Unveils New AI Features, Premium Tier
This Nvidia change could spell good news for Micron
UK money laundering suspect bought $100M in Trump crypto business: NYT
Trump signs order to limit and split childhood vaccines
Bart Scott on Jets’ Partnership With Outfront
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh promises 2% inflation, but skyrocketing U.S. debt makes that a pipe dream
US Congresswoman Nancy Mace calls Muslim officials ‘threat’ to US
🔥 burst: colombia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: openai
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 18.0
🔥 burst: russia
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 16.0
🔥 burst: gaza
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 17.0
🔥 burst: israel
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 17.0
🔥 burst: nvidia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: netanyahu
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: india
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 11.0
🔥 burst: spacex
3 sources · 6 news · intensity 20.0
🔥 burst: apple
3 sources · 5 news · intensity 19.0
🔥 burst: ethereum
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 10.0
🔥 burst: canada
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
🔥 burst: germany
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 11.0
🔥 burst: uk
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 16.0
🔥 burst: china
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 10.0
🔥 burst: iran
3 sources · 5 news · intensity 21.0
🔥 burst: russia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 11.0
✅ fill CONFIRMED · SELL 20 @ $0.0130
market: Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026?
✅ fill CONFIRMED · SELL 7 @ $0.0130
market: Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026?
✅ fill CONFIRMED · SELL 7 @ $0.0150
market: Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026?
🔥 burst: india
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: japan
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
🔥 burst: trump
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 14.0
🔥 burst: gaza
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 16.0
🔥 burst: openai
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 16.0
🔥 burst: russia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
🔥 burst: ukraine
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: netanyahu
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
🔥 burst: israel
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0