✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? 184 @ $0.0080 = $1.47 reason: llm_low_conf<50 (got 45)
USDC free
$0.41
position value
$16.10
unrealized PnL
-1.82
realized PnL
-0.17
positions
9
portfolio
$16.51
+0.32 (+2.0%)
top positions
view all 9 →| market | side | shares | avg | mid | cost | PnL | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ★ | YES | 6 | $0.360 | $0.355 | $2.16 | -0.03 | -1% |
| EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? | YES | 12 | $0.180 | $0.035 | $2.16 | -1.74 | -81% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | YES | 11 | $0.190 | $0.019 | $2.09 | -1.87 | -90% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | YES | 23 | $0.090 | $0.038 | $2.07 | -1.18 | -57% |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? ★ | YES | 18 | $0.114 | $0.579 | $2.05 | +8.36 | +407% |
recent fills
view all 25 →| when | market | side | shares | price | entry | notional | PnL | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep 12:34 UTC | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15? | BUY | 40 | $0.025 | $0.025 | $1.00 | — | — |
| 14 Sep 12:32 UTC | Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 10 | $0.070 | $0.120 | $0.70 | -0.50 | -42% |
| 12 Sep 02:45 UTC | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 1 | $0.015 | $0.050 | $0.01 | -0.04 | -70% |
| 12 Sep 02:44 UTC | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 10 | $0.020 | $0.050 | $0.20 | -0.31 | -60% |
| 12 Sep 02:44 UTC | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 9 | $0.020 | $0.050 | $0.17 | -0.26 | -60% |
activity (12h)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? 35 @ $0.0500 = $1.75 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? 17 @ $0.0600 = $1.02 reason: usdc_free<$1.02
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? 16 @ $0.1000 = $1.60 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? 58 @ $0.0270 = $1.57 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 70)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? 184 @ $0.0080 = $1.47 reason: llm_low_conf<50 (got 45)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? 35 @ $0.0500 = $1.75 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? 33 @ $0.0500 = $1.65 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? 16 @ $0.1000 = $1.60 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? 58 @ $0.0270 = $1.57 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 70)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? 879 @ $0.0020 = $1.76 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 93)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? 184 @ $0.0080 = $1.47 reason: llm_low_conf<50 (got 45)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? 35 @ $0.0500 = $1.75 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? 33 @ $0.0500 = $1.65 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? 16 @ $0.1000 = $1.60 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? 58 @ $0.0270 = $1.57 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 70)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? 184 @ $0.0080 = $1.47 reason: llm_low_conf<50 (got 45)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? 176 @ $0.0100 = $1.76 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 93)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? 35 @ $0.0500 = $1.75 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? 33 @ $0.0500 = $1.65 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? 16 @ $0.1000 = $1.60 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? 58 @ $0.0270 = $1.57 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 70)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? 184 @ $0.0080 = $1.47 reason: llm_low_conf<50 (got 45)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? 176 @ $0.0100 = $1.76 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 93)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? 35 @ $0.0500 = $1.75 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? 33 @ $0.0500 = $1.65 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? 16 @ $0.1000 = $1.60 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? 58 @ $0.0270 = $1.57 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 70)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? 184 @ $0.0080 = $1.47 reason: llm_low_conf<50 (got 45)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? 176 @ $0.0100 = $1.76 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 93)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? 35 @ $0.0500 = $1.75 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? 33 @ $0.0500 = $1.65 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026? 16 @ $0.1000 = $1.60 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 75)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? 53 @ $0.0270 = $1.43 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 70)
Three men found guilty of murdering two Australian surfer brothers and US friend
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15? 184 @ $0.0080 = $1.47 reason: llm_low_conf<50 (got 45)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? 176 @ $0.0100 = $1.76 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 93)
✂️ SKIP · lottery_entry
market: Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026? 35 @ $0.0500 = $1.75 reason: llm_overconfident>=70 (got 92)
📈 Claude: UP (92%)
Deal announcement confirms Trump and Putin are already speaking directly.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Says Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Market
MARKET: Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?
📈 Claude: UP (85%)
Putin agreeing to diesel deal implies active Trump-Putin communication, making a formal meeting more likely.
NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Says Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Market
MARKET: Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (75%)
$70B revenue run rate reinforces OpenAI's position as highest-valued private AI company.
NEWS: [bloomberg_tech] OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026
MARKET: Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation at the end of October?
📉 Claude: DOWN (72%)
Trump brokering Russian diesel imports makes a US diesel export ban far less likely.
NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market
MARKET: Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?
📈 Claude: UP (60%)
$70B run rate strengthens the case for $1.3T+ valuation. NEWS: [bloomberg_tech] OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026 MARKET: Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (60%)
Active Trump-Putin cooperation on diesel makes a Putin US visit more conceivable. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Says Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Market MARKET: Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (58%)
Russian diesel release supports EU stocks well above 30M minimum in October. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of October 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (57%)
Russian diesel deal supports EU stocks above 31M in October. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of October 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Active Trump-Putin diplomatic engagement makes US-hosted peace talks more plausible. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Says Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Market MARKET: Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
$70B annualized revenue supports high valuation but $1.10-1.20T is a narrow band below the top sibling at $1.3T. NEWS: [bloomberg_tech] OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026 MARKET: Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.10T and $1.20T at the end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Russian diesel entering global market increases EU supply availability. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of October 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Russian diesel release supports higher EU stock levels well above 30M threshold. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Russian diesel release supports EU stocks staying above 31M tonnes. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Additional global diesel supply supports EU maintaining 32M+ by December. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Russian diesel release supports EU stocks staying above 30M by December. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of December 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
More global diesel supports EU stocks above 31M by year-end. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of December 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Additional diesel supply supports EU stocks above 32M in November. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
More diesel supply supports EU keeping stocks above 32M in October. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Russian diesel deal supports EU stocks above 33M in October. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (55%)
Intensifying drone strikes on Kramatorsk show ongoing Russian targeting of Ukrainian cities. NEWS: [france24] Residents of Ukraine's Kramatorsk forced to flee as drone strikes intensify MARKET: Will Russia target Kyiv on October 11, 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
Trump cooperating with Russia on diesel makes a plague travel ban on Russia less likely. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump Says Putin Agreed to Release Diesel Into Global Market MARKET: US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
Russian diesel entering global market increases supply, pushing oil prices down not toward all-time highs. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?
📉 Claude: DOWN (55%)
US pledging no attack before midterms removes near-term military pressure on Iranian regime. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump: US Won't Attack Iran Before Midterm Elections MARKET: Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
📈 Claude: UP (52%)
Russian diesel release boosts global supply, supporting EU stock levels. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (52%)
More diesel on global market supports EU maintaining 34M+ tonne stocks. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (52%)
Russian diesel deal boosts global supply supporting EU reserves above 34M. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (52%)
Russian diesel release supports EU stocks staying above 34M in October. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (50%)
No-attack pledge removes military leverage that could force Iran to end enrichment. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Trump: US Won't Attack Iran Before Midterm Elections MARKET: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?
📈 Claude: UP (50%)
$70B revenue supports high valuation; $1.20-1.30T band is plausible but narrow. NEWS: [bloomberg_tech] OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026 MARKET: Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (50%)
$70B revenue gives OpenAI resources to invest in agent development. NEWS: [bloomberg_tech] OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026 MARKET: Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?
📉 Claude: DOWN (50%)
Bond selloff signals rising rates which pressure equities, making SPY $780 harder. NEWS: [bloomberg_politics] Wall Street Sees Ominous Sign in Bond Market’s Latest Selloff MARKET: Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?
📈 Claude: UP (50%)
Russian diesel deal increases global supply flowing into EU reserves. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (50%)
Additional Russian diesel supply helps EU maintain higher stock levels. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of November 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (50%)
Additional diesel supply supports EU maintaining 36M+ stocks in October. NEWS: [ft_markets] Trump agrees deal with Putin for Russia to release diesel on to global market MARKET: Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?
Northern Ireland secretary Chris Bryant bans Drumcree parade
Senate Fact Finders Decry Costs of Immigrant Detention at Guantánamo
Trump taps Russia to boost global diesel supplies ahead of midterms. It may be ‘too little, too late,’ says strategist.
🔥 burst: trump
8 sources · 10 news · intensity 42.0
🔥 burst: russia
7 sources · 7 news · intensity 28.0
📈 Claude: UP (90%)
Trump-Putin diesel deal confirms direct engagement, making a meeting by Oct 31 near-certain.
NEWS: [france24] Trump strikes diesel deal with Putin, reversing years of pressure on Russia over Ukraine war
MARKET: Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?
📈 Claude: UP (65%)
Revenue confusion article still cites OpenAI's massive scale; confirms dominant valuation position. NEWS: [bloomberg_tech] Anthropic and OpenAI’s Revenue Calculations Confuse Investors MARKET: Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation at the end of October?
📉 Claude: DOWN (63%)
Trump importing Russian diesel contradicts imposing a diesel export ban. NEWS: [nyt_politics] Trump Says He Will Import Russian Diesel Fuel Amid High Prices MARKET: Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?
A Big Asset Manager Deleveraging Is Underway in Treasury Futures
US plans to seize $1B in crypto linked to Iran this week: Scott Bessent
🔥 burst: iran
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 11.0
How will Spain’s housing crisis affect elections?
Flydubai co-pilot planned suicide attack on Israeli airport, UAE prosecutors say
Social Security Has To Be Addressed: Orszag
Ramp Hits $60 Billion Valuation in $1.85 Billion Funding Round
Wall Street’s Rate Shock Spreads Beneath AI-Fueled Market Rally
Trump announces deal for Russian diesel as Zelensky criticises 'gift to Putin'
🔥 burst: putin
5 sources · 6 news · intensity 24.0
🔥 burst: ukraine
4 sources · 4 news · intensity 16.0
The Little-Known Trading Firm That Beat Wall Street’s Biggest Giants
Human rights veteran Navi Pillay wins 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
Surveillance Pricing May Be Coming to a Store Near You
'Surveillance Pricing' Comes Under Scrutiny
Americans' Living Costs Are Top of Mind as Midterms Near
Prosecutors oppose Luigi Mangione’s push for dismissal of state charges
Mangione’s US Guilty Plea Should Not Bar State Trial, DA Says
Rising fuel costs slashed Delta’s profit outlook despite strong demand
New York permanently bars Celsius founder Mashinsky in $35M fraud settlement
Flydubai co-pilot plotted ‘suicide’ attack on Israel, UAE says
Italy's biggest-ever wine heist
"Pee Wees: Confessions of a Hockey Parent", "The Stories of John Cheever"
What the Midterm Elections Mean for Energy, Finance and AI
Trump announces deal for Russian diesel as Zelensky criticises 'gift to Putin'
Here’s how Treasury yields could rise to 6% — even without market upheaval
Trump strikes diesel deal with Putin, reversing years of pressure on Russia over Ukraine war
Trump Says He Will Import Russian Diesel Fuel Amid High Prices
Pretty Little Liars’ Keegan Allen attacked by masked assailants in LA
New York City’s Marble Hill residents furious after ICE shooting: ‘Why do this?’
Schools crisis in France: Investment fails to inspire confidence
Thai Queen makes first solo flight in fighter jet
Country music star Zach Bryan buys $18 million, 40-acre Tennessee estate after getting married
Trump announces Russian diesel deal amid soaring US fuel prices
OpenAI and Anthropic Are Quietly Rehearsing for the Day After an AI Catastrophe
🔥 burst: anthropic
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 11.0
🔥 burst: openai
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 11.0
AI surveillance startup Flock to cut several hundred jobs amid backlash, sources say
🔥 burst: mexico
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 14.0
🔥 burst: israel
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
🔥 burst: microsoft
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 11.0
🔥 burst: russia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: france
3 sources · 5 news · intensity 21.0
🔥 burst: apple
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 15.0
🔥 burst: fed
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: iran
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 14.0
🔥 burst: china
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: eu
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 17.0
🔥 burst: saudi_arabia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: spacex
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: ukraine
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: russia
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 15.0
🔥 burst: openai
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: uk
3 sources · 5 news · intensity 19.0
🔥 burst: india
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 16.0
🔥 burst: ukraine
3 sources · 4 news · intensity 18.0
🔥 burst: saudi_arabia
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
🔥 burst: houthi
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
🔥 burst: bitcoin
3 sources · 6 news · intensity 23.0
🔥 burst: vance
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: germany
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0
🔥 burst: south_africa
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 12.0
🔥 burst: japan
3 sources · 3 news · intensity 13.0